Exclusive: Alexei Popyrin vs. Matteo Berrettini – Prediction, Form, And Head-To-Head
Alexei Popyrin will be comfortable heading into the Paris Masters where he will face three-time ATP Tour champion Matteo Berrettini. He will be hoping to end his losing streak against Italy in the first round on Tuesday.
The Australian lost both meetings with the 28-year-old, her last outing in Vienna reaching the last eight before knocking out finalist Karen Khachanov. Popyrin remained unfazed after his stunning first career win over Novak Djokovic at the US Open.
The Australian qualified for the 2024 major final via the inaugural Masters 1000 in Canada, and defeating the Serbian star boded well for the rest of the year. But the world number 24’s form has dipped after an early exit to Grigor Dimitrov in Shanghai and fourth-round defeats to fast qualifier Francis Tiafoe in Tokyo and Vienna.
The Australian heads to Paris with an 11-6 record in ATP 1000 events and remains unbeaten on the Canadian tour with six wins. It remains to be seen which version of Popyrin will appear on Tuesday. It is still unclear the version of Popyrin that will perform on Tuesday: is the hard hitter who stunned the 24-time Grand Slam champion at Flushing Meadows or the man who struggled with fluency on the court.
Berrettini will be hoping to meet the latter to extend his 2-0 lead over the Australian and secure a second-round match against fourth seed Daniil Medvedev. The Italian reached the quarter-finals in Vienna last week, but lost straight away to maestro Khachanov, ending his four-match winning streak against the Russian.
Berrettini played some of her best tennis at the tournament in Austria last week and her three-set thriller against Tiafoe was her best of the tournament. The 28-year-old, who has had a commendable run at the ATP 500, will be hoping to carry that form into the Masters 1000 to avoid another defeat.
The 10-time champion is 1-4 at the tournament level with 1,000 wins this year, his only victory coming in thrilling straight sets against Christopher O’Connell (7-6[9], 7-6[6]) in Shanghai showing his struggle.
Berrettini faced Popyrin, but the pair had never met on Tour three years before the Italian reached a career-best sixth place finish.
The Italian enters this year’s Masters with three titles, making him the only player outside of Y
jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz to hold multiple titles at the tournament level until 2024.
HEAD TO HEAD
Vienna (2021) – Round of 32: Berrettini 7-6(3) 6-3 2019
US Open (2019) – Third round: Berrettini 6-4 6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(2)
Much has changed since the 2021 Vienna Games. The 28-year-old is expected to play his best tennis since injury. The Italian enters this year’s Masters with three titles, making him the only player outside of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz to hold multiple titles at the tournament level until 2024.
PREDICTION
Popyrin’s lack of momentum is reflected in his 1-5 record in tournament-level events as of Tuesday. Berrettini is therefore favored to extend his lead to 2-0 and advance to the second round against Medvedev.
